142/2026

1. Buyer

1.1.

Buyer

Official name: European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Email: procurement@ecmwf.int

Legal type of the buyer: International organisation

Activity of the contracting authority: Environmental protection

2. Procedure

2.1.

Procedure

Title: C3S2_610 Development of an event-linked counterfactual diagnostic evidence layer based on ECMWF forecast and reanalysis information in support of the C3S Operational Attribution Office

Description: The aim of this ITT is to develop an event-linked counterfactual evidence layer to support the C3S Operational Attribution Office. Using ECMWF forecasts and reanalysis products, it will derive event-specific counterfactual diagnostics that provide additional evidence on how the intensity, probability or other characteristics of observed extreme events may have differed in the absence of human-induced climate change. ECMWF intends to award a single Framework Agreement, with a maximum duration of 18 months, which shall be implemented via a single multi-annual Service Contract, expected to commence at the beginning of Q1 2027.

Procedure identifier: 44e8a55c-8103-45ab-85a8-fa9ca85cae42

Internal identifier: C3S2_610

Type of procedure: Open

The procedure is accelerated: no

2.1.1.

Purpose

Main nature of the contract: Services

Main classification (cpv): 73000000 Research and development services and related consultancy services

2.1.2.

Place of performance

Anywhere in the European Economic Area

Additional information: Service shall be performed on Contractor's premises, located either in a European Union Member State or in a Copernicus Participating State.

2.1.3.

Value

Estimated value excluding VAT: 750 000,00 EUR

Maximum value of the framework agreement: 750 000,00 EUR

2.1.4.

General information

Additional information: Procedure to be applied: The procurement will be conducted in accordance with ECMWF's procedures as set out in Invitation to Tender documents, which are available on ECMWF's eProcurement Portal (https://procurement.ecmwf.int/) and no other procedures will apply. In submitting this notice ECMWF does not waive the privileges and immunities granted to it by virtue of its status as an intergovernmental organisation or submit itself to any jurisdiction. Tenders must be submitted using ECMWF's eProcurement Portal. Hard copy (paper) submissions will not be accepted. Due to the need to include performance and compliance obligations in the contract, ECMWF will contract only with a single legal person or entity which is competent to undertake and commit to these obligations. ECMWF recognises that some bids will involve a number of organisations which may wish to work together to deliver the contract requirements. In such cases, these organisations must identify a lead contractor who will sign the contract with ECMWF and who will be responsible for putting in place legal arrangements to ensure that it can guarantee that all other organisations will also meet the contract obligations. ECMWF will not enter into multiple contracts with individual members of consortia or groups of service providers. Eligibility: Refer to Section 3.2 of Volume I of the ITT documents.

Legal basis:

Other

ECMWF Financial Regulations

2.1.6.

Grounds for exclusion

Sources of grounds for exclusion: Procurement Document

5. Lot

5.1.

Lot: LOT-0001

Title: C3S2_610 Development of an event-linked counterfactual diagnostic evidence layer based on ECMWF forecast and reanalysis information in support of the C3S Operational Attribution Office

Description: This ITT aims to develop a methodological framework and supporting procedures for generating event-conditioned diagnostic evidence for high-impact extreme events by assessing how key characteristics of observed present-day events would differ under counterfactual climate conditions without anthropogenic warming. Tenderers must propose a scientifically robust and operationally feasible approach, including an assessment of data availability, computational requirements, reproducibility, interpretability and delivery timelines, while confirming that no new large-scale climate or weather model simulations will be undertaken. The successful tenderer will, in consultation with C3S, establish quality requirements and an evaluation methodology to assess the physical consistency, robustness, reproducibility, transparency and limitations of the derived evidence, and will provide a comprehensive handover package to support future operational or pre-operational implementation.

Internal identifier: C3S2_610

5.1.1.

Purpose

Main nature of the contract: Services

Main classification (cpv): 73000000 Research and development services and related consultancy services

5.1.2.

Place of performance

Anywhere in the European Economic Area

Additional information: Service shall be performed on Contractor's premises, located either in a European Union Member State or in a Copernicus Participating State.

5.1.3.

Estimated duration

Start date: 01/02/2027

Duration: 18 Months

5.1.5.

Value

Estimated value excluding VAT: 750 000,00 EUR

Maximum value of the framework agreement: 750 000,00 EUR

5.1.6.

General information

Reserved participation:

Participation is not reserved.

The names and professional qualifications of the staff assigned to perform the contract must be given: Tender requirement

Procurement Project fully or partially financed with EU Funds.

Information about European Union funds:

EU funds programme: European Earth Observation Programme (Copernicus) (2014/2020)

The procurement is covered by the Government Procurement Agreement (GPA): no

This procurement is also suitable for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs): yes

5.1.9.

Selection criteria

Sources of selection criteria: Procurement Document

5.1.10.

Award criteria

Criterion:

Type: Quality

Description: Legal and Financial